Valuations Still Too High
01 mins 28 secs
This is your Markets Minute, Morgan Stanley, Chief U S Equity Strategist, and CIO Mike Wilson thinks equities are still overvalued and risk is only going up.
Wilson acknowledged the steep drop in equity valuations over the last year but said the current bear market has been about the fed inflation and interest rates and that the equity risk premium is still not factoring in growth concerns tied to a slowing economy which in the light of the recent bank collapses has only grown.
The price has never really factor in the growth concerns, right that the bear market to date has still been for the most part about the fed inflation and interest rates going up in a very quick manner that has compressed valuations.
But at no point in the last year, as we've seen the equity risk premium components similar to credit spreads.
By the way,those usually blow out when they're really concerned when stocks or credit instruments are concerned about growth and that hasn't happened yet.
So we we really can't say the coast is clear, given our view on growth.
Now, if we were more optimistic on growth, then we would probably be saying that bear market was over in October when we call that rally back, at that time because we thought there would be a relief on the rate side which we got.
But now given our view on earnings and of course, this potential credit crunch, we think the risk has gone up for that equity risk premium to finally come home and get the hit the price earnings multiples.
Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist and CIO Mike Wilson, thinks that equity risk premiums are not factoring in growth concerns tied to a slowing economy, which in light of the recent bank collapses has only grown.