Chicago Fed Eyes Possibility of Goldilocks Ending
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee suggests that the so-called “golden path”--one in which the U.S. inflation rate cools without a recession–is not guaranteed, but within reach.
Another Boost for 10-Year Yields
Over the last four months, U.S. 10-year yields have risen from 3.35% to 4.30%. Jim Iuorio says, the driver of the rise seems to be a persistent fall in inflation coupled with surprising resilience in other non-inflation data. Analyze the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-day Fed Funds Futures pricing data.
Fed’s Kashkari: U.S. Strength a ‘Surprise’
The U.S. economy has remained resilient despite the most aggressive rate hike cycle in forty years, a reaction that Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis chief Neel Kashkari described as surprising at a Town Hall in Minnesota earlier today.
Fed No Longer Forecasts Recession–Powell Leaves Door Open for September
The Federal Reserve no longer foresees a recession according to Chairman Jerome Powell, but future rate hikes will be determined on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis. The announcement came after a much-anticipated rate hike that took benchmark borrowing costs to a twenty-two-year high.
A Bumpy Inflation Ride Ahead
U.S. inflation is now just one percentage point above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Should the Fed push rates higher just because housing continues to be a key contributor to inflation? CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam explains. CME Group experts regularly share insights and analysis on market events that matter to you. Stay Up-to-Date with Evolving Markets
Why Fed's Rate Path Is Far From Over
The Fed's June skip does not mean that the current hiking cycle is complete. A look at the Fed's dot plot suggests a continued rise in 2023, up to 5.6% before the Fed is finished. Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services. Analyze the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-day Fed Funds Futures pricing data.
Muted FX Volatility
Uncertainty over the Fed's next move, wariness over a recession sprinkled with geopolitical instability and G5 currencies are trading at the lowest levels in over 18 months. What's behind the drop in FX volatility? Craig Bewick with CME Group and Scott Bauer with Prosper Trading Academy discuss. Monitor risk expectations in real time across asset classes with live-streaming CVOL
El-Erian Thinks Fed Projections Need Revision
Mohamed El-Erian criticizes the Federal Reserve's economic projections, arguing that they are overly pessimistic regarding unemployment and overly optimistic regarding inflation. El-Erian believes that the Fed will be compelled to revise downward their forecast of 4.5% unemployment by the year's end and revise upward their projection of 3.3% PCE inflation at the same time.
What is the yield curve telling traders?
Is the deepening inversion with the yield curve signaling a growing belief that the Fed could be tightening too much? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services. View exclusive content and premium features Create a CME Group account
Fed Signals Further Hikes Possible
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President, Mary Daly, became the latest regional Federal Reserve President to publicly state that future rate hikes are possible after the FOMC meeting in June.
Cat’s Out of the Bag on Yield
D. Vance Barse, CPWA®, AIF®, Wealth Strategist & Founder of Your Dedicated Fiduciary®, is getting a lot of questions from clients about the banking crisis. He shares his response to them, how he is playing duration and equities, and why he thinks a hard landing is likely in the cards.
A Shift In Focus
U.S. 10-year yields have been trading in a tight range, 3.6% to the upside and 3.3% to the downside. Is this indecision with yields reflecting a shift in focus from Fed tightening to easing? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools, and alerts. Create a CME Group account