Momentum Shift: A Closer Look at the US Consumer
Hailey Orr, Director of Capital Markets Strategy for MUFG and co-author of the firms recently published research “Momentum Shift: A Closer Look at the US Consumer”, shares insights from the research, discusses mixed macroeconomic data, and expectations for a US recession.
Earnings Season: Week 1 of Q1 2023
Tim Anderson, Managing Director at TJM Investments, shares updates from week one of earnings season, thoughts on bullish European equity markets, and why the US debt ceiling doesn't matter to markets.
Markets and Fed, A Bit ‘Out of Sync’
As recession worries increase, there seems to be a growing divergence between market pricing and Fed guidance. Insights by CME Group Chief Economist, Blu Putnam. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
Since touching inversion in July, the yield curve has now moved to levels not seen since 1982. As the inversion deepens, what’s the message? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 22: Investors' Guide to the Fed’s Hard Landing
Brian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, discusses the Fed’s third straight 75 basis point hike and its meaning for the economy and investors.
What is the yield curve signaling?
On September 22nd the spread between 2-year vs. 10-year Treasury yields traded down to a low of -57 basis points. Is the latest curve inversion signaling a recession is coming? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services. Create a CME Group account: More Features, More Insights. Get quick access to tools and premium content, or customize a portfolio and set alerts to follow the market.
Is The Yield Curve Headed For More Inversion?
Historically, the depth of a yield curve inversion has not been closely correlated with the depth of the recession, but it has been correlated with the length of time to a recessions onset. What is this inversion telling traders? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services.
Mixed Signals: An Assessment Of U.S. Recession Risk In The Year Ahead
Tom Joyce, Global Head of Capital Markets Strategy for MUFG discusses his recently published report, "Mixed Signals: An Assessment Of US Recession Risk In The Year Ahead", where over 110 signals for previous US recessions were reviewed to form a projection of the likelihood of a recession and what it will look like.
Unlocking the Next Economic Downturn
Is the economy headed into recession? If so, this one chart may contain the secret to finding out when a downturn might begin. Insights by CME Group Senior Economist, Erik Norland.
Busy Week Caps Best Month Since 2020
The last week of July saw over a third of S&P 500 companies' Q2 earnings calls, the Fed raise interest rates 75bps, the second consecutive quarter of negative growth, and the market's best month since 2020.
GBP/USD Downtrend Support
Can GBP/USD traders push through key support levels? Or are factors like recession fears and U.K. politics hindering the sterling’s recovery? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services.
Consumer Spending Betraying Sentiment
The market is still searching for direction amidst the ides of July and Q2 earnings calls, strong consumer spending and near-half-century-low consumer sentiment, and fund managers reducing their allocation to equities to lows not seen since October 2008.