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PIMCO’s Dan Ivascyn sees about 50/50 odds of another hike in Sept. and warns investors against assuming the Fed is finally done raising rates. He told Bloomberg TV “There is definitely a chance that this cycle is stretched a lot longer due to the exceptional period of low rates after Covid.”

And while Nuveen sees “higher for longer” rates remaining as a key theme, the asset manager favors selectively taking on risk and expects Treasury yields to fall slightly this year, with the 10-year ending 2023 around 3.35%. Nuveen adds in its Aug 7 commentary that senior loans enjoyed their 10th consecutive weekly gain.

Finally, Vanguard thinks we’ll see a shallow recession and favors higher-quality securities that are less economically sensitive. In its Q3 report, Vanguard writes that even though there could be more turbulence ahead, the global bond market is near cruising altitude and higher yields mean investors are getting paid to wait.