Julius Baer: ECB First Mover?
01 mins 58 secs
As the world prepares for a shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, which central bank will move first? Mark Matthews, head of Asia Research at Julius Bear, expects the European central bank to lead the way, projecting his timeline for rate cuts across the world on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. We believe the ECB will be the first to move among the major central banks in March. We don't expect the Fed to cut until September, but that's OK. I think that we've seen this year the markets have been surprisingly adept at handling these high interest rates. And I don't think that'll change if the leadership remains in the big technology stocks, which we expect it to do. One are the chances of disappointment, because it seems markets are pricing in for a lot of easing next year with a forced rate cut to come in May. Well, if they're expecting a rate cut in May, I think they will be disappointed, because you'd have to see a significant deceleration in the economy for that to happen. But I have a feeling they'll take it in stride. And as I said, the generative AI and the massive investment we can see that these big tech companies have been doing in data storage capacity to accommodate this impending revolution, I think, will remain mean, that the revenues and profits of these big technology companies will remain extremely strong. And as you know, they're a significant part of the S&P. So just to use in videos and example, I'm obviously choosing the best one. But their PE this year, which is 60 times, will be 25 times next year. And they've got an ROE of 70%. I don't see how you can call that expensive.
TranscriptOf the Central Banks preparing to pivot, Europe will be the first to cut rates according to Mark Matthews, Head of Asia Research at Julius Baer.
COMPANIES
TOPICS