U.S. Treasuries are still a safe bet, according to Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC. Speaking on Bloomberg Markets: China Open, he discussed his current preference for developed over emerging markets and the conditions that have set up Treasuries for a strong second half of the year.

We were at the top of the range for the 10 years. We were last here in October last year. We've been up and down about five times. The difference between now and all the other occasions we've been up and down is that the policy rate is 225 basis points higher than it was last November. So if you take that into account, we've absorbed a huge amount of tightening with the yield at the same level as it was last year,  um, to me, the real yield is the key you've got.  You've got 2% in the longer run real yields. That's above trend GDP.  So trend GDP is not the last quarter of GDP.  If people extrapolate what happened last quarter into the next few years, well,  then, good luck, because that last quarter was bought with fiscal large,  which is not going to be continuing. Presumably, it could even go into reverse. So to me, the fundamental valuation is that the real yield in the spot and the forwards are now above the trend.  GDP.  The technical argument is that we're at the top of the range.  It might go a few basis points above. It doesn't matter. The point is, you're entering 10-year bonds, and the yield is competitive with equities and credit. Don't forget credits on the tight end of the range.

EM  has had a fantastic year total return on local currency bonds 18 to 20% in the last year. So, uh, some money could be taken off the table. EM has done well, but there are a few areas of trouble brewing here.  So, for Treasuries, it's quite well set up for the rest of the year. Now, you know, I've been bullish for some time, and, uh, the yields go down,  they go up, but we're still at the top of the range. I'II, I think, is a good entry point.